12th December 2018
56% never believed Theresa May’s Brexit deal would pass British
Parliament
Ulster and Connacht the regions most pessimistic about May’s
ability to pass the negotiated deal
Of those predicting defeat, 14% predicted May would be removed
as Conservative Party leader before motion reached House of Commons vote
In
the middle of another chaotic week in the Brexit process, British Prime
Minister Theresa May’s leadership hangs in the balance as this evening she
faces a vote of no confidence in the Conservative Parliamentary Party. A
failure to win the support of 159 Tory Members of Parliament will trigger a
leadership contest and spell the end of a much-troubled time as Prime Minister
for May. A victory, however, could guarantee her position as leader for another
year.
Increased
pressure on the Prime Minister follows the decision on Monday to suspend a
House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal May negotiated with the European Union
in order to avoid what was expected to be a heavy defeat. Additionally, the government
was defeated in multiple votes last week, including in one particularly
embarrassing motion that found Theresa May’s government in contempt of
Parliament.
To
gauge the thoughts of Irish people on Theresa May’s Brexit deal and her future
as Prime Minister, iReach has conducted a nationally representative survey of
1001 people.
56%
didn’t believe that Theresa May was ever likely to be capable of passing the
motion through the British Parliament, with respondents from the Connacht/
Ulster region most pessimistic, an enormous 62% predicting the failure of May’s
deal.
Of
those who didn’t believe the deal would make it through the House of Commons,
30% believed the motion would be defeated amid strong calls for a second
referendum. At 33%, this is the most common response of those from Connacht /
Ulster.
The
eventuality that is very much on the table this evening, that Theresa May is
ousted as Conservative Party Leader before a vote on the deal is ever taken,
was the predicted outcome of 14%.
Of
those who believed the deal would fail, 25% believed it would do so among a
clamor for a General Election. Interestingly, only 6% from Connacht/ Ulster
felt the potential defeat of May’s Brexit deal would result in no Brexit
whatsoever, which is half of the amount (12%) of the rest of the country.
About
iReach Insights
iReach
Insights provides a range of research and market intelligence services in
Ireland and Europe. iReach has built a Consumer Decisions Research Panel of
40,000 members in Ireland, delivering robust research insights. The survey
questions were included in the Nationally Representative iReach Consumer Decisions
Omnibus run between the 22nd November and the 28th
November and has a 3% Confidence Interval and 95% Confidence Level.
iReach
Insights Limited – Temple Hall, Temple Road, Blackrock, CO. Dublin, IRELAND.
iReach Managing Director: Oisin Byrne
T: 01-214 3740 or email: PR@ireachhq.com
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