Wednesday, 12 December 2018

56% never believed Theresa May’s Brexit deal would pass British Parliament

Reach Insights Press Release

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12th December 2018

56% never believed Theresa May’s Brexit deal would pass British Parliament

Ulster and Connacht the regions most pessimistic about May’s ability to pass the negotiated deal

Of those predicting defeat, 14% predicted May would be removed as Conservative Party leader before motion reached House of Commons vote

In the middle of another chaotic week in the Brexit process, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership hangs in the balance as this evening she faces a vote of no confidence in the Conservative Parliamentary Party. A failure to win the support of 159 Tory Members of Parliament will trigger a leadership contest and spell the end of a much-troubled time as Prime Minister for May. A victory, however, could guarantee her position as leader for another year.

Increased pressure on the Prime Minister follows the decision on Monday to suspend a House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal May negotiated with the European Union in order to avoid what was expected to be a heavy defeat. Additionally, the government was defeated in multiple votes last week, including in one particularly embarrassing motion that found Theresa May’s government in contempt of Parliament.

To gauge the thoughts of Irish people on Theresa May’s Brexit deal and her future as Prime Minister, iReach has conducted a nationally representative survey of 1001 people.

56% didn’t believe that Theresa May was ever likely to be capable of passing the motion through the British Parliament, with respondents from the Connacht/ Ulster region most pessimistic, an enormous 62% predicting the failure of May’s deal.

Of those who didn’t believe the deal would make it through the House of Commons, 30% believed the motion would be defeated amid strong calls for a second referendum. At 33%, this is the most common response of those from Connacht / Ulster.

The eventuality that is very much on the table this evening, that Theresa May is ousted as Conservative Party Leader before a vote on the deal is ever taken, was the predicted outcome of 14%.

Of those who believed the deal would fail, 25% believed it would do so among a clamor for a General Election. Interestingly, only 6% from Connacht/ Ulster felt the potential defeat of May’s Brexit deal would result in no Brexit whatsoever, which is half of the amount (12%) of the rest of the country.

About iReach Insights
iReach Insights provides a range of research and market intelligence services in Ireland and Europe. iReach has built a Consumer Decisions Research Panel of 40,000 members in Ireland, delivering robust research insights. The survey questions were included in the Nationally Representative iReach Consumer Decisions Omnibus run between the 22nd November and the 28th November and has a 3% Confidence Interval and 95% Confidence Level.

iReach Insights Limited – Temple Hall, Temple Road, Blackrock, CO. Dublin, IRELAND.
iReach Managing Director: Oisin Byrne
T: 01-214 3740 or email:

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