Surge in expectations that Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party will form a new Coalition Government (at 45% of all adults – up from 23% in February)
 49% believe Micheál Martin will be the next Taoiseach.

In a second nationwide poll of adults in Ireland (run between 5^th and 11^th March) and their expectations of a new Government, we see a significant shift in expectations of a new Government, since the first wave run shortly after the General Election in February (poll ran between the 13^th and 18^th of February).

 
·    Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil & the Green Party are the preferred option for 32% of all adults up from 23% in February, while 45% of respondents believe they will form the new coalition (up from 23% in February)
 
·       49% all adults in Ireland believe Micheál Martin will be the next Taoiseach with Leo Varadkar as the next Tánaiste (23%).
 
·       Despite 45% of respondents believing that Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party will likely form the next government, 17% believe that all parties will fail to agree on a stable formation of the 33^rd Dáil and therefore another general election will be called (down from 23% in February.

·     Nationwide 32% (down from 46% in February) said they believed Sinn Féin would lead the next Government whilst working alongside other Coalition parties to form a majority.

The Next Taoiseach and Tánaiste

·       Almost half (49%) of respondents think Micheál Martin will be the next Taoiseach. This figure is significantly higher in Munster (57%). 34% of respondents believe Mary Lou McDonald will be the next Taoiseach (43% in Connacht/ Ulster).

·       Only 6% of respondents believe Leo Varadkar will remain as Taoiseach, however, 23% of respondents believe Varadkar will become the next Tánaiste. 19% of respondents believe Mary Lou McDonald will be the next Tánaiste. 18% believe it will be Micheál Martin shortly followed by the 17% that believe it will be Eamon Ryan.

About iReach Insights

iReach Insights provides a range of research and market intelligence services in Ireland and Europe. iReach has built a Consumer Decisions Research Panel of 40,000 members in Ireland, delivering robust research insights.

The nationwide poll delivered 1,000 responses and is Nationally Representative by Age, Region, Gender and Socioeconomic demographics and ran between the 5^th and the 11th of March 2020 and has a 2.5% Confidence Interval and 95% Confidence Level.

Questions asked of participants:

·       Following the results of the recent general election, who would you like to see form Ireland’s next coalition government?

·        Following the results of the recent general election, who do you think will end up forming Ireland’s next coalition government?

·        Who do you think will be the next Taoiseach?

·        Who do you think will be the next Tánaiste?

·        Which of the following people do you think could best fill the role of Minister for Health?

iReach Insights Limited – Temple Hall, Temple Road, Blackrock, CO. Dublin, IRELAND.

iReach Managing Director: Oisin Byrne
T: 01-214 3740 or email: oisin.byrne@ireachhq.com